The present study mainly aims at the quantitative prediction of rainfall during the pre-monsoon season at Kolkata (22° 34' N, 88° 24' E), India, for the next 24 hours from the time of observation. For this purpose multiple linear regression models are developed separately for March, April, May and the Whole Pre-Monsoon Season. The total period of the study is 1974-2014 (41 years) among which data set (1974-2001) is used to select the important parameters for constructing the models and that of (2002-2014) is used for validation. The parameters are selected on the basis of stepwise linear regression, backward selection procedure and ANOVA.
It is interesting to note that the multiple linear regression models thus developed are capable of predicting the moderate range rainfall (7.5mm-35.55mm) almost accurately with the maximum error lying between ±10mm.
Though the residual plots indicate that there are no such obvious defects present in the models, the RMSE values reveal that the models for May and Whole Pre-Monsoon Season produce better results than the others.
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