Global biodiversity loss is accelerating, and orchids rank among the most threatened plant families. This decline parallels the rapid reduction in insect populations. Climate change is predicted to modify abiotic environments, posing risks not only to individual species but also to the complex ecological interactions—such as pseudocopulation—on which certain orchids depend for reproduction.

This study investigates the effects of global warming on the Australian orchid Calochilus campestris and its pollinator Radumeris tasmaniensis, which are tightly linked through a specialized pollination system. Ecological niche modeling (ENM) was employed to assess current and future distributions of both species across four Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5). The species serves as an indicator of temperate grassland ecosystems in southern Australia.

Modeling results indicate that climate change may reduce the spatial overlap between the orchid and its pollinator, threatening reproductive success. Under milder climate scenarios, both species are projected to lose only a few percent of their suitable range. However, under the most severe scenario (SSP5-8.5), approximately 30% of their current distributions could be lost. Moreover, within parts of the orchid’s core range, the pollinator may become locally extinct despite abiotic conditions remaining favorable for the plant.

Both species are predicted to shift towards cooler southern regions, including Tasmania and New Zealand, reflecting a broader biogeographical trend of poleward migration. Identifying areas that will remain suitable for both species—climatic refugia—is essential for guiding future conservation strategies and ensuring the persistence of this specialized orchid–pollinator interaction under changing climatic conditions.