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Project Portfolio Optimization under Temporal Constraints with uncertainty
1 , 2 , 1 , * 3 , 4
1  Postgraduate and Research Division, National Mexican Institute of Technology/Madero Institute of Technology, Cd. Madero, México
2  Faculty of Civil Engineering, Autonomous University of Sinaloa Culiacan, Culiacan, México
4  Postgraduate and Research Division, National Mexican Institute of Technology/Madero Institute of Technology, Cd. Madero, México.


The definition of more realistic scenarios of instances for the portfolio selection problems (PSP) of new product developments usually should involve precedence relations that generate effects related to time-interdependence among different projects. The study of time -interdependences, or time effects, on the selection of projects captures our attention because they affect the problem objective functions. Three different moments have been identified as usually present in any project: 1) the estimated completion time; 2) the moment in which the competence become significant; and, 3) the moment in which the developed product becomes old. A PSP under such temporal constraints (denoted PSPTC) could face risk because the lack of reliable data derived from long lead times of projects, or by a complex market and technology dynamics; such imperfect knowledge could cause variability in the benefits and requirements of a PSPTC. In this sense, this paper proposes the design of an optimization model for PSPTC under uncertainty, and the study of their influence in choosing optimal project portfolios of new product developments. This work proposes an interval-based approach to deal with PSPTC; this approach has the advantage of a unified and simple way to model the different sources of imprecision, uncertainty and arbitrariness. Also, the model is parametrized such that the attitude of the DM facing the imperfect knowledge can be adjusted by using two meaningful parameters.


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Keywords: Decision Aid; Time-Interdependence; Imperfect Knowledge; Optimization Model