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Naota Hanasaki   Dr.   
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Naota Hanasaki published an article in March 2019.
Top co-authors See all
Taikan Oki

222 shared publications

Institute of Industrial ScienceUniversity of Tokyo Tokyo Japan

Shinjiro Kanae

85 shared publications

Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, School of Environment and Society, Tokyo Institute of Technology, 2-12-1-M1-6 Ookayama, Meguro-ku, Tokyo 152-8552, Japan

Tomohiro Okadera

18 shared publications

Center for Regional Environmental Research, National Institute for Environmental Studies, 305-8506 Tsukuba, Japan

Norihiro Itsubo

15 shared publications

Faculty of Environmental and Information Studies, Tokyo City University, Yokohama, Japan

Shinjiro Yano

6 shared publications

Institute for Water Science, Suntory Global Innovation Center Limited, 8-1-1 Seikadai, Seika-cho, Soraku-gun, Kyoto 619-0284, Japan

Publication Record
Distribution of Articles published per year 
(1974 - 2019)
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Article 0 Reads 0 Citations State-of-the-art global models underestimate impacts from climate extremes Jacob Schewe, Simon N. Gosling, Christopher Reyer, Fang Zhao... Published: 01 March 2019
Nature Communications, doi: 10.1038/s41467-019-08745-6
DOI See at publisher website PubMed View at PubMed ABS Show/hide abstract
Global impact models represent process-level understanding of how natural and human systems may be affected by climate change. Their projections are used in integrated assessments of climate change. Here we test, for the first time, systematically across many important systems, how well such impact models capture the impacts of extreme climate conditions. Using the 2003 European heat wave and drought as a historical analogue for comparable events in the future, we find that a majority of models underestimate the extremeness of impacts in important sectors such as agriculture, terrestrial ecosystems, and heat-related human mortality, while impacts on water resources and hydropower are overestimated in some river basins; and the spread across models is often large. This has important implications for economic assessments of climate change impacts that rely on these models. It also means that societal risks from future extreme events may be greater than previously thought.
Article 0 Reads 0 Citations Visualizing the Interconnections Among Climate Risks T. Yokohata, K. Tanaka, K. Nishina, K. Takahashi, S. Emori, ... Published: 12 February 2019
Earth's Future, doi: 10.1029/2018ef000945
DOI See at publisher website ABS Show/hide abstract
It is now widely recognized that climate change affects multiple sectors in virtually every part of the world. Impacts on one sector may influence other sectors, including seemingly remote ones, which we call “interconnections of climate risks.” While a substantial number of climate risks are identified in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report (AR5), there have been few attempts to explore the interconnections between them in a comprehensive way. To fill this gap, we developed a methodology for visualizing climate risks and their interconnections based on a literature survey. Our visualizations highlight the need to address climate risk interconnections in impact and vulnerability studies. Our risk maps and flowcharts show how changes in climate impact natural and socio‐economic systems, ultimately affecting human security, health, and well‐being. We tested our visualization approach with potential users and identified likely benefits and issues. Our methodology can be used as a communication tool to inform decision makers, stakeholders, and the general public of the cascading risks that can be triggered by climate change.
Article 2 Reads 1 Citation Limited Role of Working Time Shift in Offsetting the Increasing Occupational‐Health Cost of Heat Exposure Jun’Ya Takakura, Shinichiro Fujimori, Kiyoshi Takahashi, Tom... Published: 21 November 2018
Earth's Future, doi: 10.1029/2018ef000883
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Climate change increases workers’ exposure to heat stress. To prevent heat‐related illnesses, according to occupational‐health recommendations, labor capacity must be reduced. However, this preventive measure is expected to be costly, and the costs are likely to rise as the scale and scope of climate change impacts increase over time. Shifting the start of the working day to earlier in the morning could be an effective adaptation measure for avoiding the impacts of labor capacity reduction. However, the plausibility and efficacy of such an intervention have never been quantitatively assessed. Here we investigate whether working time shifts can offset the economic impacts of labor capacity reduction due to climate change. Incorporating a temporally (one‐hour) and spatially (0.5°×0.5°) high‐resolution heat exposure index into an integrated assessment model, we calculated the working time shift necessary to offset labor capacity reduction and economic loss under hypothetical with‐ and without‐realistic‐adaptation scenarios. The results of a normative scenario analysis indicated that a global average shift of 5.7 (4.0‐6.1) hours is required, assuming extreme climate conditions in the 2090s. Although a realistic (< three hours) shift nearly halves the economic cost, a substantial cost corresponding to 1.6% (1.0‐2.4%) of global total gross domestic product is expected to remain. In contrast, if stringent climate‐change mitigation is achieved, a realistic shift limits the remaining cost to 0.14% (0.12‐0.47%) of global total gross domestic product. Although shifting working time is shown to be effective as an adaptation measure, climate‐change mitigation remains indispensable to minimize the impact.
Article 0 Reads 1 Citation Broad threat to humanity from cumulative climate hazards intensified by greenhouse gas emissions Camilo Mora, Daniele Spirandelli, Erik C. Franklin, John Lyn... Published: 19 November 2018
Nature Climate Change, doi: 10.1038/s41558-018-0315-6
DOI See at publisher website
Article 0 Reads 0 Citations A Quantitative Investigation of the Thresholds for Two Conventional Water Scarcity Indicators Using a State‐of‐the‐Art G... Naota Hanasaki, Sayaka Yoshikawa, Yadu Pokhrel, Shinjiro Kan... Published: 25 October 2018
Water Resources Research, doi: 10.1029/2018wr022931
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Among the published global water resource assessments, regions where annual total water withdrawal exceeds 20% and 40% of the availability, or where per capita water availability falls below 1,700 and 500 m3·person−1·year−1, are categorized as being moderately and highly water stressed, respectively, but the rationale for using these thresholds has not been fully explained. Here we show that these thresholds represent the sufficiency of local and renewable water resources, which are estimated daily by a state‐of‐the‐art global hydrological model. We found that water abstraction from local and renewable sources is insufficient (i.e., more than 1% of the annual total water requirement becomes unmet) in a majority of grid cells where annual total water withdrawal exceeds 20% of the availability and/or per capita water availability falls below 1,700 person−1·year−1 (moderate stress). In grid cells where the corresponding values are 40% and/or below 500 m3·person−1·year−1 (high water stress), more than 20% and 60% of the annual total water requirement must be supplied by nonlocal and nonrenewable sources, respectively. These results indicate that conventional indicators and thresholds can be used as a surrogate for measuring daily variations in the sufficiency of local and renewable water sources at the global scale. At the same time, the substitutability of the water withdrawal to availability (WTA) and the water availability per capita (APC) varies by region, which can be primarily attributed to the intensity of the seasonal variation in river flow and irrigated area per capita, respectively. Based on the analyses, new sets of thresholds for WTA and APC are proposed.
Article 0 Reads 0 Citations Economic Consequences of Cooling Water Insufficiency in the Thermal Power Sector under Climate Change Scenarios Qian Zhou, Naota Hanasaki, Shinichiro Fujimori Published: 09 October 2018
Energies, doi: 10.3390/en11102686
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Currently, thermal power is the largest source of power in the world. Although the impacts of climate change on cooling water sufficiency in thermal power plants have been extensively assessed globally and regionally, their economic consequences have seldom been evaluated. In this study, the Asia-Pacific Integrated Model Computable General Equilibrium model (AIM/CGE) was used to evaluate the economic consequences of projected future cooling water insufficiency on a global basis, which was simulated using the H08 global hydrological model. This approach enabled us to investigate how the physical impacts of climate change on thermal power generation influence economic activities in regions and industrial sectors. To account for the uncertainty of climate change projections, five global climate models and two representative concentration pathways (RCPs 2.6 and 8.5) were used. The ensemble-mean results showed that the global gross domestic product (GDP) loss in 2070–2095 due to cooling water insufficiency in the thermal power sector was −0.21% (−0.12%) in RCP8.5 (RCP2.6). Among the five regions, the largest GDP loss of −0.57% (−0.27%) was observed in the Middle East and Africa. Medium-scale losses of −0.18% (−0.12%) and −0.14% (−0.12%) were found in OECD90 (the member countries of the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development as of 1990) and Eastern Europe and the Former Soviet Union, respectively. The smallest losses of −0.05% (−0.06%) and −0.09% (−0.08%) were found in Latin America and Asia, respectively. The economic impact of cooling water insufficiency was non-negligible and should be considered as one of the threats induced by climate change.