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Francisco Cubillo  - - - 
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PROCEEDINGS-ARTICLE 8 Reads 0 Citations An approach to measuring resilience to manage water supply systems Ángela Martínez-Codina, Francisco Cubillo Published: 16 November 2016
Proceedings of The 1st International Electronic Conference on Water Sciences, doi: 10.3390/ecws-1-d003
DOI See at publisher website ABS Show/hide abstract
Water supply systems are exposed to events that affect the normal service provision. Water companies should follow their own policy rules to manage and overcome these types of threats. In this article, resilience is identified as the capacities of the system to delimit the impacts of hazardous event, which may be characterized by its severity and duration. The effects of disruptive events to the water service delivery are classified into water scarcity, discontinuity of water supply, discontinuity of hydraulic conditions and discontinuity of drinking water quality. The loss of service level is established by failure thresholds named as a standard level, a normative level, an accepted level and a critical level. These thresholds allow formulating management actions at different stages to reach the standard level of service that identifies when the systems returns to normal conditions. The global model defined by the loss of service and time is used to measure resilience by means of a resilience factor. It depends on each type of defined threat and considers the mentioned failure thresholds. The methodology is applied to a complex real-life system, managed by Canal de Isabel II Gestión (Spain) for different study cases: a drought, pipe breaks and events that affect the water quality conditions. Real data allow contrasting the protocols of management established by the water company. The methodology helps water utilities update their protocols for a certain hazard and provide useful information to plan their investments in order to improve the system resilience.
PROCEEDINGS-ARTICLE 9 Reads 0 Citations Development of an asset lifetime model for distribution network management Patricia Gómez-Martinez, Francisco Cubillo Published: 16 November 2016
Proceedings of The 1st International Electronic Conference on Water Sciences, doi: 10.3390/ecws-1-d004
DOI See at publisher website ABS Show/hide abstract
As aging infrastructures require increasing investment for providing a specific level of service to consumers, efficient replacement polices become essential. The key for a better asset management is to set criteria, methods and systems to facilitate that improvement of efficiency at the decision making process while minimizing possible service disturbance events. The proposed paper will describe the development of a reliable asset lifetime model as a method for improving replacement efficiency in water supply systems. In this regard, investments will be lead to previously selected elements according to its likelihood of failure and their impact in service provision to the end user. Therefore, the method presents two steps. First of all, a failure prediction model is proposed. In a second step, consequences of failures are measured in terms of service interruption impact. As accuracy in failure predictions is increased, renewal investments turn out to be more efficient. Thus, the model has been built through collected data from Madrid distribution network which comprises more than 17.000 km with over 400.000 water mains. The failure prediction model is founded on the statistical analysis of historical network data from over 55.000 system failures gathered during the last four years. Likewise, detailed information from more than 4.400 disturbance events, where data has been carefully recorded through field visits and laboratory essays of soil and pipe materials when failures were repaired, has contributed to its development. The study of such large series of information has allowed not only the identification of intrinsic and dynamic explanatory factors of failures but also the establishment of reliable periods for model’s calibration and validation. As replacement priorities change according to system conditions and previous investments, this method will provide a tool for annual forecasting the set of elements that should be renewed to minimize service disturbance.